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Arctic News Update, April 20 2026

Canada’s Carney and Finland’s Stubb Play Soldiers

Finland’s president Alexander Stubb was in Ottawa last week stirring up a Canadian entry into the European Union, an idea influential columnist Andrew Coyne termed “ridiculous.” But – is it?

Comments out of Russia, combined with a close parsing of the Canadian statement aft…

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Thousands of migratory birds en route to the Arctic have washed up on North Atlantic shores, further evidence that migratory birds across the far North are experiencing severe environmental stress, especially in Alaska. More than 10,000 dead puffins have been recorded with thousands more expected because puffins typical…

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Gahcho Kue’s Minority Owner Faces April 30 Debt Deadline

Mountain Province Diamonds (MPD) must meet two critical debt deadlines within weeks or risk a restructuring of its ownership stake in the Gahcho Kue diamond mine in the Northwest Territories. (All figures C$ unless noted).

A bridge loan and working capital facility c…

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The EU suddenly shifts its position on Arctic oil and gas, post-Hormuz

The Financial Times said oil and gas companies including Norway’s Equinor and a lobby group backed by Shell, TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips have called for the EU to drop an effective ban on future drilling in the Arctic. More than 10 oil and gas c…

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Canada:

Russia said Western countries are increasing military activity in the Arctic in ways that threaten Moscow and raise confrontation risks. The comments respond to Canada’s major turn Northwards with its C$32 billion investment in a string of new Arctic military bases. Mosco…

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Arctic News Update: March 16, 2026

CANADA

Prime Minister Mark Carney announces historic defence, infrastructure plan

Canada is spending $32 billion on a network of Arctic military bases and another $10 billion on an infrastructure blitz. Whitehorse, Inuvik, Resolute Bay, Yellowknife, Iqaluit, and Goose Bay will become military bases with two smaller outpos…

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Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

Oil prices settled in dramatic fashion after G7 nations announced plans to release strategic reserves -

…..and also after Trump said that the Iran War was “very complete, pretty much.”

Here is Wednesday’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) chart:

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CANADIAN ARCTIC

Canada’s Diavik Diamond Mine Shuts Down

The first of three struggling Canadian Arctic diamond mines is to close this month, a casualty of the lab-grown diamond revolution. Diavik has produced more than 150 million carats since starting up 23 years ago, and the closure will hit the Northwest Territories hard, costing hundreds of jobs and nearly $375 million in local annual procurement.

Arviat to Host First Inuit-Led University

Arviat, Nunavut, has been selected as the main campus site for Inuit Nunangat University — Canada’s first Inuit university. The decision followed a competitive proposal process involving eight shortlisted communities. The university is expected to open around 2030, accommodating about 100 students and 80 staff, and aims to strengthen Inuit language, culture, and post-secondary education opportunities.

1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Stormbound on Shingle Point

A party of Canadian Rangers was hunkered down on Shingle Point last week while encountering heavy snow and high winds on a 4,500-kilometre land traverse from Inuvik to Churchill, Manitoba. About 1300 Canadian Rangers are conducting a variety of exercises at different locations across the Canadian Arctic under this year’s Operation Nanook-Nunalivut,

Whitehorse Prepares to Host Arctic Winter Games March 8-15

More than 2000 athletes from Canada, Greenland, Alaska, and the Nordic Arctic nations - Norway, Sweden, Finland, and parts of Russia - will descend on the small northern city to compete in 20 different sports from figure skating to archery to curling. The games are widely viewed as a great way for Arctic circumpolar youth to connect. Opening ceremony Sunday March 8 @ 7.30pm.

Kyra McDonald Signs Pro Hockey Contract

Inuvik-born hockey player Kyra McDonald has signed her first professional contract with Fribourg-Gottéron in Switzerland’s top women’s league.

Inuvik Drum Publishes Final Edition

The Inuvik Drum newspaper closed on January 9 after 59 years. Owner NNSL Media cited declining advertising revenue and said Inuvik would be covered from Yellowknife.

NORDIC ARCTIC

More than 50 huge data centres to be built across northern Nordics

Wired says cold climates, available land, and an abundance of hydropower are drawing Artificial Intelligence data companies, or neoclouds, to the North. Cooler temperatures help reduce energy demand, allowing companies to meet stringent emissions targets.

Sweden intercepts Russian drone near Malmo port

Sweden said it neutralized a Russian drone launched by a Russian intelligence ship passing near the port of Malmö, where the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was docked. Sweden called the incident a violation of Swedish airspace. Moscow called the allegation “absurd.”

Norway prepares for Cold Response 26

The annual Arctic exercise will run March 9–19 and involve 25,000 troops from 14 NATO-aligned countries who will conduct joint Arctic land, air, and sea operations in Norway, Finland, and Sweden. Last week European NATO navies hunted two submarines across the GIUK in Arctic Dolphin.

Norway’s Sámi Herders Co-Design Climate Mapping Tool

Sámi reindeer herders in northern Norway have partnered with researchers to create a digital mapping tool that will blend traditional knowledge with scientific data, helping to track warming temperatures, unstable snow and ice conditions, shifting vegetation, and impacts on reindeer migration.

GREENLAND

DDOS attack in Nuuk

Greenland came under DDOS attack during the recent visit by the King of Denmark to the island. Nuuk also experienced an extended power outage in late January, affecting 20,000 people who were left without power for four days.

Compensation Claims in Greenland “Spiral Case” Rise

A total of 209 Greenlandic women have applied for compensation over contraceptives allegedly administered without consent, far exceeding expectations. The claims follow a “spiral case” investigation into forced IUD insertions dating back to the 1960s.

Denmark’s Election Timing Linked to Greenland Tensions

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced a snap election for March 24, hoping to exploit a popularity bounce after standing up to US President Trump.

Greenland PM Rejects U.S. Hospital Ship Proposal

Greenland Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede rejected a proposal by U.S. President Donald Trump to send a U.S. Navy hospital ship to the Arctic island, denying Trump’s claim that residents’ health care needs were not being met adequately.

ALASKA, UNITED STATES

Alaska scrambles F35 fighter jets to kick Russian bombers out of ADIZ

NORAD escorted two Russian Tu-95 bombers, two Su-35 fighters and an A-50 early-warning plane out of the Alaska ADIZ (Air Defense Identification Zone) on February 19. The Russian aircraft remained in international airspace and did not enter U.S. or Canadian sovereign territory

Alaska Supplemental Budget Dispute

The Alaska House passed a nearly $500 million supplemental budget to address the state’s deficit, but disagreements over Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s spending priorities prevented lawmakers from securing a supermajority as it heads to the Senate.

Alaska LNG Import Debate

Alaska lawmakers and regulators are questioning whether Southcentral Alaska needs two proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities, arguing that current demand projections may not justify both.

First “Seal Finger” Case Linked to Brown Bear

In a medical first, Alaska confirmed a case of “seal finger” infection tied to a brown bear after a hunter cut his hand while skinning the animal. The rare bacterial infection was resistant to antibiotics, highlighting unusual zoonotic diseases in people exposed to wildlife.

RUSSIA

Russian Arctic LNG Tankers Keep the Red Sea Route

Malte Humpert at gCaptain says Russia’s LNG shadow fleet is undeterred by the Middle East disruption, with at least seven tankers currently transiting the Red Sea route to and from Asia.

Russia Floats $14 Trillion Post-Sanctions Proposal

The Kremlin is proposing a joint U.S.–Russia projects package worth up to $14 trillion once the Ukraine war ends, to include rare-earths mining, Arctic oil and gas, and possibly US LNG shipments along the Northern Sea Route. The proposal coincides with reports that the Trump administration is considering repairing the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline that was sabotaged in September 2022. Europe strongly objects.

Arctic Exploration Investment Grows in 2025

Russia said 195.5 billion rubles (about $2.5 billion) was invested in Arctic exploration in 2025. Spending has grown 5–10% annually.

Russia welcomes Pacific pink salmon invasion into Russian Arctic waters

Russian scientists say pink salmon spawning in Arctic rivers, especially on the Taymyr Peninsula, may boost nutrient-poor freshwater ecosystems by transporting marine-derived nutrients inland when they die after spawning.

Closure of Moscow’s Gulag History Museum

Moscow’s Gulag History Museum has been permanently closed. Its stark exhibits and survivor accounts of Soviet forced-labor camps and political repression have been replaced with a new state-backed museum focused on genocide and Nazi crimes.

Arctic Research:

Research: Arctic Council’s Strained but Vital Role

The Belfer Center at Harvard University concedes that the Arctic Council has weakened its operational effectiveness since suspending Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. While working groups have resumed some virtual activities, the Council faces reduced visibility and constrained collaboration. The authors argue it remains indispensable because no other body combines Arctic states and Indigenous Permanent Participants under a consensus model. They caution that excluding Russia severely undermines climate and ocean monitoring efforts, and recommend restoring in-person meetings, strengthening Indigenous engagement, improving inter-chair coordination, leveraging partnerships with bodies like the International Maritime Organization, and adopting stronger communication strategies to prevent institutional decline.

Research: Rights of Nature for Arctic Sea Ice

A new academic article proposes recognizing Arctic sea ice as a legal entity with inherent rights, challenging state-centric interpretations of international law such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The authors argue this rights-of-nature framework would better reflect sea ice’s ecological and Indigenous cultural importance and could reshape how environmental protections are applied as climate change transforms the region.

Research: Assessing the Geographic Effectiveness of Canada’s Arctic Military Infrastructure

Too Much Geography? Evaluating the Locations of Canadian Armed Forces Infrastructure in the North and Arctic examines whether the geographic placement of Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) infrastructure provides sufficient strategic and operational value to meet Canada’s Arctic security objectives. The report challenges alarmist narratives about Arctic militarization and instead evaluates infrastructure against the most realistic threats facing the region, rating the risk of large-scale armed conflict in Canada’s North as low. Climate-driven disasters, increased shipping through the Northwest Passage, and foreign surveillance or hybrid activities are higher risks. Northern air hubs in Iqaluit, Yellowknife, Inuvik, and Whitehorse generally have sufficient runway capacity to support most RCAF aircraft, although the range of CC-138 Twin Otters based in Yellowknife does not allow direct access to much of the High Arctic Archipelago without refueling, highlighting reliance on the Canadian Rangers as local first responders. Although Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels possess significant range, most realistic Northwest Passage transit scenarios require refueling. The proposed Nanisivik Naval Facility addresses this gap but remains constrained by operational and seasonal limitations. The report concludes that Canada is not “undefended” in the Arctic, nor does it require large-scale militarization. Targeted improvements in High Arctic air mobility and naval refueling capacity would strengthen Canada’s Arctic posture while preserving its flexible, mobility-focused approach.

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CANADIAN ARCTIC

Canada’s Diavik Diamond Mine Shuts Down

The first of three struggling Canadian Arctic diamond mines is to close this month, a casualty of the lab-grown diamond revolution. Diavik has produced more than 150 million carats since starting up 23 years ago, and the closure will hit the Northwest Territories hard, costing hundreds of jobs and ne…

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Arctic Mining News:

Northern Dynasty (NDM:TSX) shares crashed after the US Department of Justice upheld a veto on the Pebble mine near Bristol Bay in Alaska. Pebble is conservatively estimated to hold 3.35 billion pounds of copper, 4.58 million ounces of gold, and 20 million ounces of silver, but it poses a significant risk to the Bristol Bay fishery. This prompted a 2023 veto from the Environmental Protection Agency, which the Trump DOJ has now upheld. Shares closed at $1.31 on Friday, down 40 percent on the week.

Critical Minerals Group (CMG:ASX) announced a rare earths resource of more than 45 million tonnes at Tanbreeze in Greenland confirming the deposit as one of the world’s biggest. Last year’s drill results proved that heavy rare earths used for defense applications account for more than one quarter of established reserves.

Hecla Mining (HL:NYSE) is doubling its exploration budget to $55 million, responding to record prices in silver prices. The largest silver producer in Canada and the United States is spending on projects in Nevada, Alaska, Idaho, and the historic Keno Hill in the Yukon. Shares ended at $23.99 on Friday.

White Gold (WGO:TSXV) is spinning off its critical minerals assets into a separate corporate vehicle, easing development of proven resources of copper, tungsten, antimony, bismuth, molybdenum, and zinc. White Gold is owned and operated by legendary Yukon prospector, Shawn Ryan. White Gold ended up 5.35% at C$1.78 on Friday.

AngloGold Ashanti (AU:NYSE) has taken a five percent stake in Thesis Gold (TAU:TSXV) paying around $39 million. Thesis is developing the Lawyers-Ranch gold project in northern British Columbia, which is estimated to hold 117.5 million tonnes of indicated reserves grading 0.88 percent for an estimated 3.3 million ounces gold and 98 million ounces silver, along with substantial copper. Thesis Gold closed at C$3.12 on Friday.

Uranium keeps on rallying, with prices above $100 per pound for the first time in two years, driven at least in part by strong demand from AI facilities for independent power production.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM:TSX) doubled its profit on the year to $4.5 billion while reporting record metal reserves at 55.4 million ounces. The company produced 3.45 million ounces in the year at an all-in cash cost of $1339 per ounce with gold prices reaching $5500 per ounce earlier before the pullback earlier this year. Shares rocketed higher on the news, ending up 1.7 percent at 228.26 on Friday. Expect a flood of this sort of announcement in the next two to three weeks.

Imports account for 100 percent of US supply of 16 out of 90 non-fuel commodities. Imports also account for more than 50 percent of US supply of more than half of the remainder. The US Geological Survey said these numbers highlight the critical importance of more and faster work to secure supply chains.

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Arctic Oil and Gas News:

Gazprom Neft, Russia’s third-largest producer, on Wednesday announced a major new oil discovery on the Yamal Peninsula. The oil field is estimated to hold 55 million tonnes or more than 400 million barrels oil, making it the largest oil discovery in more than 30 years in a region known to host extraordinary hydrocarbon reserves. Limited information has been released. The site is named Kontorvich after a geologist, and was discovered after three years of investigation in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region, an Arctic area of permafrost known for substantial gas deposits.

The worst ice conditions in more than a decade continue to plague the Baltic Sea coast, further depressing Russia oil exports already struggling with Western sanctions, a strong rouble, and low energy prices. Russia has sent two more of its powerful nuclear icebreakers to the Baltic, while warning that if the ice thickens beyond 30-50 centimetres – only 5cm greater than current levels – then all non-ice class ships will be banned from the ports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Vysotsk regardless of escort availability. Ports in the Gulf of Finland account for 40 percent of Russian’s seaborne oil exports, and Bloomberg reports a 40-percent decline in H1 exports from the port of Primorsk to February at 490,000 barrels.

Russia’s oil and gas revenue this month is expected to halve on the year to 410 billion roubles due to a stronger Russian currency and weaker oil prices. Oil and gas revenue accounts for more than 20 percent of the Russian budget. Reuters estimated the decline based on oil and gas production and refining data, as well as supplies released on domestic and international markets.

Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG2 plant expects to receive two more ice-class LNG carriers in the coming year, joining two ice-class LNG carriers already in service. This fleet can run the NSR without icebreaker escort, making it critical to Arctic LNG2’s continued operation which relies on exports to China. The Russia-built Alexey Kosygin just came on line in December, joining the Christophe de Margerie. There is some question about how long it will take to get the new ships into full operation with reports of lengthy trials on the first two ships. Owned by Novatek, Arctic LNG2 is key to Russia’s ambitions to triple its current production of 100 million tons per year.

Power blackouts hit Russia’s Arctic cities of Murmansk and Severomorsk – home port for the nation’s Northern Fleet and vital second strike capability – in January. The two cities with a combined population of around 300,000 spent four days in darkness in the depths of winter after five Soviet-era power transmission towers collapsed. Power was restored January 27.

Norway said total oil and gas investment will decline this year, with fewer projects getting underway to replace the number of major field developments now reaching completion. Total 2026 investment is estimated at $27 billion or 273 billion crowns against 273 billion crowns last year, although inflation may lift that number over the remainder of the year, Statistics Norway said. Temporary tax incentives lifted offshore oil and gas development over the past three years, and a further ten percent investment decline is anticipated in 2027. Last week, Norway announced a major exploration push, stressing the importance of the oil and gas industry. Norway contributes two percent of global oil output and 30 percent of European gas demand.

Imperial Oil is closing down the Norman Wells oil production site near the Arctic Circle, ending nearly a century of operation. Norman Wells fueled the Allied defense of the Pacific coast through the Second World War, diverting the oil south to Alberta after the war ended. Imperial parent Exxon Mobil Corp said the project would close in the third quarter this year.

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Arctic Maritime News:

The European Investment Bank is lending Iceland’s Arion Bank 100 million euro to promote sustainable fisheries, land-based aquaculture, and other marine industries, funneling the money to small and medium-sized businesses in Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. Sustainable fishing, seafood processing, and fish and algae farming will qualify for loans. Iceland signed a free trade agreement with China in 2013, and supported China’s application for observer status on the Arctic Council as a “near-Arctic” state. China operates a joint “science observatory” in northern Iceland.

Arctic maritime shipping in “Polar Code” areas – ie outside exclusive Russian areas - reached a record 1812 transits in 2025, up 40 percent since records began in 2013, the Arctic Council said. Fishing vessels are now the most common type of ship in the Arctic, defined as areas north of the 60^th parallel. Cargo vessels are the second most common, rising nearly five fold over 12 years while bulk carriers have tripled and cruise ships have doubled in frequency. The data confirms that the Arctic is opening up to maritime use, but most activity is restricted to the months between August and early November, and the data is incomplete because it excludes a lot of Russian shipping, which accounts for the vast majority of commercial Arctic maritime activity.

Indigenous groups in the Canadian Arctic are celebrating after a Canadian Infrastructure Bank official told the Arctic 360 conference that “money shouldn’t be the issue” for the Arctic Security Corridor, a proposed permanent road linking Yellowknife with a new dual use deep water port at Gray’s Bay on the Arctic Coast. This road will open up the entire Slave Geological Province in the centre of the Canadian Arctic to exploration, while radically improving the lives of Arctic residents who live in these remote areas, particularly along Arctic coast.

The United States Coast Guard confirmed that 11 new icebreakers are now under construction, with the second of two contracts issued earlier this month. The contract for six of a total order for 11 new Arctic Security Cutters was signed in December, with two being built by Rauma Marine Constructions in Finland for a first delivery in 2028, while the other four ships were contracted to Bollinger Shipyards Lockport in the United States with first delivery in 2029. On February 11, the Coast Guard issued the second contract for the second tranche of five ships to Davie Defense Inc. Again, the contract is split between Finland and the US, to assist the re-establishment of US shipbuilding. Davie will build two ships in its Helsinki shipyard, and another three ships in the United States. Total contract value is $3.5 billion.

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The pace of global change is accelerating as the US Trump administration re-orders the global system to counter an ascendant People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The past week saw the US give Europe another shove towards picking up the burden of its own defense. It also kicked the Chinese out of Panama, signed a rare earths deal with Brazil, and celebrated a political sea change in Japan that has fundamentally altered the Asian security landscape.

In the Arctic, Canada redirected defense procurement away from the US towards its own domestic suppliers, NATO launched Arctic Sentry to coordinate all its Arctic operations, and Sweden and Denmark pledged fighter jet patrols of Greenland and Iceland.

The annual Munich Security Conference revealed no evidence of a “third pole” coalition of middle nations promoted by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, an idea the Wall Street Journal termed “delusional.”

“Greenland changed everything,” opined pundit Rory Stewart, referencing US President Trump’s threat of unilateral action to secure the Arctic island unless Denmark starts taking its defense responsibilities more seriously.

It has become clear that without a comprehensive European security and procurement pact, Brussels confronts a stark choice: the United States, or the PRC. Meanwhile, Canada is moving quickly and quietly to chart its own path.

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 EUROPE, UNITED STATES

Secretary of State Mark Rubio repeated US Vice President JD Vance’s shock message last year, telling Munich that Europe’s refusal to defend its sovereign identity makes the region a US liability within NATO. National militaries only fight for things they believe in, and European and US belief systems are no longer in alignment: “(This) has to be an alliance of allies that are capable and willing to fight for who they are and what’s important,” Rubio said.

Germany’s Friederich Merz conceded that Europe must choose between a declining United States and an ascendant China, before adding that the culture battles of MAGA “are not ours.” This ignores rising German support for the right-wing Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), which Germany is trying to de-platform.

Years of net zero energy policy leave most of Europe and the United Kingdom without the fiscal or energy capacity to build the industrial base that a competent military defense requires. This foretells radical, broad-based political change; the UK’s commitment to net zero ignores existential defense prerogatives, promising either a radical switch in energy policy or the disruptive removal of the top political tier sooner rather than later.

🌐 NATO Arctic

The Arctic NATO states announced Arctic Sentry, which will scale up NATO Arctic defense in response to US dissatisfaction with Denmark’s efforts to secure Greenland, where US early warning and military satellite operations are based. Arctic Sentry will coordinate all NATO activity in the Arctic, bringing it under one command to identify security gaps and enhancing inter-operability. NATO said this multi-domain mission covering air, sea, and land would incorporate all NATO Arctic exercises. Norway’s annual Arctic exercise Cold Response as well as Denmark’s Arctic Endurance in Greenland will fall under its umbrella, and Sweden, Denmark, France, Germany and the UK have pledged participation. Ottawa has yet to confirm that Arctic Sentry will oversee Canada’s Operation Nanook - which is routinely attended by NATO peers.

Oilprice.com said the move attempts to appease Trump and avoid unilateral US action, or bilateral US arrangements with individual NATO states. “Without U.S. capabilities, NATO’s Arctic posture doesn’t really hold, but it wants more of a say in matters of its own backyard. This initiative ties the U.S. firmly into the ‘collective’ while placing more burden on European members.”

🇬🇱 GREENLAND

In a scrum on Friday, US President Trump said, “We’re negotiating on Greenland right now,” prompting a flurry of concern at a Saturday session on the Arctic island’s status at the Munich Security Conference. It’s clear he was referring to established discussions between Rubio, Greenlandic foreign minister Vivian Motzfeldt, and Denmark, but that did nothing to defuse outspoken European anxiety. US Senator Lisa Murkowski regretted the distraction that Greenland has become from much larger, broader and more urgent Arctic security issues.

Murkowski attempted to convey the significance of China’s participation in unprecedentedly aggressive joint Russian excursions into the Alaskan Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), while Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand emphasized Canada’s commitment to a collaborative approach to Arctic defense, referencing the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and underscoring Canada’s radical new defense enhancements.

By contrast, the German defense minister repeatedly interjected hostile criticism of the US Trump administration, promoting NATO involvement in the Arctic without identifying any specific German contribution. The attitude supports reports of back room disputes both about burden-sharing on Greenland, and disagreement over the relative merits of NATO vs bilateral/trilateral arrangements.

Worth watching to experience the heightened tension surrounding Greenland in Europe, alongside the general lack of familiarity with the reality of Arctic defense issues, which extend well beyond Greenland and Trump’s rhetoric to resolve the chronic and outstanding security threat that it has become.

🇨🇦 CANADA

Canada-Denmark-Greenland: Canada and Denmark signed a defense cooperation agreement on Munich’s sidelines, underscoring shared anxieties about the Trump administration’s intentions. “Today we send a clear message: the Arctic is secure and we will keep in that way,” Canadian Defense Minister David McGuinty said in a written statement. The two nations sharing vast Arctic territories with identical defense challenges. Both have also been threatened with US annexation. While most attention has focused on Greenland, there’s increasing evidence Trump’s threats against Canada should be taken seriously.

• Trump’s seizure of Venezuela’s heavy crude oil poses a significant challenge for Canada. Cheap Venezuelan crude competes for US refining capacity with Canada’s Albertan crude, which could end up stranded thanks to federal climate legislation blocking the construction of pipelines to carry oil from Alberta to west coast ports. This traps Canadian oil inside North America and prevents it from reaching other markets, in Asia for example. Canada relies on Alberta oil revenue to pay its bills; its loss could ultimately shave 10 cents off the Canadian dollar according to some estimates. This will fuel secessionist sentiment in Alberta where more than one-third of the electorate favours US accession. If Venezuelan oil causes the carnage some experts expect, support for Alberta separation will rise, setting the stage for a Canadian fiscal implosion that will split the country. This is serious, folks. If Alberta goes, it will likely take Saskatchewan with it – that’s all the uranium, potash, wheat, soybean, and some oil and gas – along with, possibly, some sections of the Arctic linking the lower 48 to Alaska.

• From Trump’s perspective, Venezuela is turning into a winner. It secured cheap US energy while forcing China to replace cheap sanctioned crude with restricted options for open market purchases. It also sets the stage for an Alberta-Canada break-up that could ultimately transfer Canada’s most valuable resource geography to US control. This is the backdrop for the July 1 start of Canada-US trade negotiations, where Carney will try to persuade a reluctant Trump to renew a trade deal that exempts more than 75% of Canadian exports from US tariffs.

• Canada Defense Industrial Strategy: Canada is diverting billions in defense procurement spending away from the United States to new domestic providers, according to a leaked Defense Industrial Strategy. According to the Globe and Mail, Ottawa plans to allocate 70 percent of defense acquisitions to Canadian rather than US firms, while doubling Canadian defense exports. “We’re looking at a complete rebuild of the Canadian Forces, top to bottom,” Defense Minister David McGuinty told Munich, according to the Globe and Mail. Canada expects the strategy to generate 125,000 new jobs under a build, partner, and buy framework. Carney has committed $81.8 billion to defense over five years, boosting Canada’s annual defense spend to five percent of GDP by 2035. The cumulative totals are a huge commitment for a mid-tier nation: $180 billion on defense procurement, $290 billion on defense-related infrastructure, and $125 billion on downstream economic activity.

• Canada’s Big Five banks are all supporting a proposed Defense, Security & Resilience bank which will be used by NATO member countries to support increased defence spending. The bank is expected to have 13 members and support up to 40 countries.

• Canada delays F35 fighter jet commitment: The first tranche of 16 F35s are now due and pilot training is underway at Luke Air Force base in Arizona. Ottawa put the 88-jet purchase commitment on review last March after Trump threatened to annex Canada, leaving it reliant on a fleet of expired F18s. Canada is one of at least three nations backing away from the F35, which is experiencing production delays caused by rare earths supply chain difficulties, according to reports. Switzerland is reviewing its purchase while Spain has opted instead for an inferior European alternative. Canada has already issued construction bids for F35 support facilities, including right across the Arctic. All alternatives to the F35 are substantially inferior, and will compromise NATO defense and its already parlous European interoperability.

• Respected academic Andrea Charron at the University of Manitoba makes the important point that in the Arctic, the F35s are just one component of NORAD’s layered continental defense system. “Air-to-air refuellers, airborne early-warning platforms, and surveillance systems in all domains are equally essential. NORAD’s strength lies in the integration of these capabilities,” she writes. “Throughout periods of political disagreement between our governments, NORAD personnel have consistently maintained continental security with professionalism and unity. That example should guide us.”

• The US warned last week that if Canada refuses to take the jets, Washington will purchase them instead in order to fulfill Canada’s NORAD commitments, which will require entering Canadian airspace. US ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said this would then trigger a review of the North American Aerospace Defense Command - which the two nations have jointly funded and operated for nearly 75 years. Canadian academics reacted furiously to Hoekstra’s comments.

• Canada warns on China: Canadian intelligence officials warn that China, not Russia, is the primary threat in the Arctic. Intelligence officials are increasing contacts with indigenous communities, and territorial and municipal governments to mitigate the threat. “I would say now, our primary concern about the threat in the Arctic falls under economic security,” said Paul Lynd, assistant director at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. “It’s foreign interference in our economic sector.”

• This perspective clashes with Europe’s isolated focus on Russia, and stokes US concern about European attitudes to self-defense. NATO’s recent release outlining the need for increased Arctic security under Arctic Sentry ignores China, focusing exclusively upon Russia. This would appear to confirm Rubio’s strongly implied view that the US now considers Europe a defense liability rather than a true ally, one that it is increasingly unable and unwilling to tolerate.

🇵🇦 PANAMA

On January 29, the Supreme Court of Panama voided CK Hutchison Holding’s long-term operating contracts for two ports at each end of the Panama Canal, which it had held for decades. The decision ends a dispute over Chinese interference at the canal, which the Trump administration has insisted be returned to US control. The US built the canal before selling it to Panama, subsequently paying large fees to transit US naval ships between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Hutchison agreed to sell the ports to Blackrock Inc. last year in a $23 billion deal that included another 40 ports in 23 countries - but Beijing blocked the deal, sensitive to the loss of a critical component in its carefully constructed seizure of global sea lanes. China has spent two decades executing a series of strategic port purchases, and called the Panamanian court decision “absurd,” and “shameful.” This extreme reaction would seem to support Trump’s position on the need for US control of the Canada. The US Senate last year contemplated re-establishing a rapid reaction force at the site.

🇯🇵 JAPAN

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a historic landslide election victory in a snap election called just three months after taking office. The hugely popular Takaichi lifted her party’s Lower House to 316 seats from just 198 on February 8, securing a two-thirds majority and a formidable mandate for a radical shift in Japanese defense and security policy. The victory will allow the LDP to reform Japan’s post-war pacifist stance, while raising defense spending to two percent of GDP. This has profound implications for regional security. Japan sits adjacent to Russian Far East territories bordering Manchuria, a region with a complicated and messy 20^th century history. Memories of Japanese invasion remain fresh in an area where China continues to challenge Russian territorial integrity. Beijing said the election reflects structural trends in Japan that deserve “serious reflection” by both Japan and the international community, and it advised Japan to “take seriously” international concerns. Takaichi’s win has strengthened the US presence in the Pacific, and US-Japan ties are set to deepen - but the region’s bloody historical context is a huge concern. Amending Japan’s post-war stance was like “giving a chocolate liqueur to an alcoholic,” Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew said.

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Oil and Gas Development:

🇺🇸 Alaska and the United States:

• Pretty much the entire coastal plain of the U.S. Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) was opened for oil and gas leasing by the Trump administration, a major policy reversal from previous limits. The Bureau of Land Management issued calls for nominations for future ANWR lease sales.

• A U.S. federal judge ruled that ConocoPhillips can proceed with winter drilling in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, rejecting a conservation group challenge to halt the exploration program there.

• First Nations and Indigenous groups in Canada and Alaska are defending caribou habitat and challenging drilling decisions following federal policy shifts in the U.S. Arctic.

• Graphite One continues to pursue funding for its project near Nome, Alaska. Exim Bank has agreed to fund 70 percent of the development, with the company now seeking private investment for the remaining 30 percent. The government funding commitment follows confirmation of a major rare earth deposit.

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🇳🇴 🇪🇺Norway:

• Equinor plans 250 wells off Norway’s coast by 2035, including 26 this year. The company announced $10 billion in supplier contracts last week for a total annual investment around $25 billion.

• Norway awards 57 offshore exploration licenses to keep European oil flowing.

• ECHR rejects a climate challenge against Norwegian oil exploration in the Arctic.

• Norway considers tax cuts and other incentives to boost regional security, linking it to energy development. Meanwhile, the Norwegian parliament emphasizes the central importance of its energy strategy.

🇬🇱 Greenland:

• Renewed geopolitical focus on Greenland has highlighted the island’s energy and mineral potential, with economic and environmental challenges raising questions about the viability of future developments.

• Research has uncovered natural hydrocarbon seepage off Northeast Greenland, underscoring the presence of hydrocarbon systems in place with very limited formal exploration infrastructure.

🇷🇺 Russia:

• A sanctioned LNG tanker heading to China reroutes instead to Murmansk along Norway’s Arctic coast, illustrating evolving sanction-avoidance tactics.

• Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project continues exporting gas to China despite sanctions. Bellona Foundation warns at least 100 sanctioned vessels have traversed the Northern Sea Route.

• Russia’s first home-built ARC7 liquefied natural gas carrier, Alexey Kosygin, completed a Northern Sea Route voyage, signaling a continued emphasis on Arctic LNG2 exports despite sanctions.

• China records record container ship traverses in the Arctic last year.

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Metals and Mining:

Rio Tinto (RIO:NYSE) has called off its $260 billion merger with commodities giant Glencore (GLEN:LSE). The two companies were unable to agree on a governance and ownership structure for what would have become the world’s largest mining company.

Baffinland got the green light for its massive $3-billion expansion at the high grade Mary River iron mine on Baffin Island, with construction to start once financing is is in place, expected before year-end. The Steensby expansion will transport ore along a new 149-km railroad to a new deep water port at Steensby Inlet, which will extend the annual shipping season and help to lift annual production to 22 million tonnes from 4.2 million tonnes currently. The project effectively shifts transport away from Milne Port along the channel adjacent to Pond Inlet, where there is an increasing amount of cruise ship traffic, to the south of the island. Mary River ore is so high grade it doesn’t require processing. Baffinland is owned by Indian iron/steel leader ArcelorMittal, and The Energy and Metals Group of Houston, Texas. CBC story here.

🇨🇦 Foreign Minister Anita Anand said Canada won’t join the new US critical minerals trading bloc (“Project Vault,” see below) until the USMCA North American free trade deal is renewed. US President Trump has shown some reluctance to approve the deal, which exempts more than 75-percent of Canadian exports from US tariffs. “We are not looking to sign sector-by-sector deals, and we are looking forward to the comprehensive CUSMA review,” Anand said, using the Canadian acronym.

Skeena Gold & Silver (SKE:TSX) has won approvals for its Eskay Creek mine allowing a restart target of second quarter 2027. Once the world’s highest-grade gold mine, Eskay Creek is expected to produce between 320,000 and 455,000 oz. over 12 years at a capital cost of $713 million, creating 770 jobs. Shares closed at C$42.94 on Friday.

In a long expected move, Barrick Mining (ABX:TSX) said it is spinning off its North American gold assets into a new publicly listed company by the end of the year. The IPO is expected to garner strong interest, including from global gold giant Newmont (NEM:TSX). Barrick also confirmed Mark Hill as permanent head.

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Precious Metals:

JPMorgan remains bullish on gold despite last week’s sharp percent sell-off, which many market players said was triggered by US President Trump’s nomination of USD hawk Kevin Warsh as Governor of the US Federal Reserve. JP Morgan set a $6,300/oz. year-end target driven by continued diversification into gold, rising to $8,000/oz. by the end of the decade. The bank is more cautious on silver.

China’s Zijin Gold has agreed to buy Canada’s Allied Gold in a friendly all-cash deal at $44 per share worth about $5.5 billion (US$4 billion, a modest premium over Monday’s close at $42.52. The acquisition fits a broader trend of gold miners pursuing takeovers to secure long-life assets during a period of soaring bullion prices.

Germany is under renewed pressure to repatriate some of its gold from New York. About one-third of Germany’s gold reserves amounting to 1,200 tonnes (about $128 billion) are held in New York for security and liquidity reasons, a practice dating back to the Cold War. Some now believe that bringing the gold home would boost Germany’s strategic independence.

The Northern Miner warns that while Gold Loves Instability - Mines Do Not.

Critical Minerals:

“PROJECT VAULT”: US PRESIDENT TRUMP LAUNCHES A $12 BILLION STRATEGIC STOCKPILE OF CRITICAL MINERALS to shield US manufacturers from supply disruptions caused by predatory Chinese market practices. Project Vault combines $10 billion in Export-Import Bank loans with $1.67 billion in private capital to fund a minerals stockpile that will help to free U.S. and friendly nations from China’s stranglehold over the global critical minerals supply chain.

Ivanhoe Mines (IVN:TSX) said it is in talks with DRC-owned Gecamines to send about half of the zinc and rare earths produced at its 68-percent held Kipushi Mine in Congo to the “Project Vault” US stockpile launched last week (see above). Total zinc volume is estimated between 240,000 and 290,000 tonnes per year with additional germanium, gallium, and other minerals. Ivanhoe founder Robert Friedland told US President Trump at the Project Vault launch in the Oval Office last week that morale in the mining industry was ‘sky high.’

The U.S. government plans to acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of a $3.1 billion support package that will help the company expand mining, processing, and magnet production. The goal is to establish the first fully domestic rare earth supply chain in the US.

The U.S. is exploring a rare earths partnership with Brazil, which is trying to revive its mining sector and attract investment.

Copper:

CHINA announces yet more stockpiling of copper as part of its strategic minerals inventory, and says it might soon include copper concentrates. This is a further extension of the same predatory Chinese market practices that have disrupted global commodities markets and forced other nations to respond in kind (see Project Vault). Industrial producers are facing critical shortages and price disruptions that Beijing continues to weaponise against its enemies in an abuse of the global free trade system, into which China was welcomed 30 years ago with US support. A vicious cycle of shortages and price increases has now been established. Copper at $5.90 lb.

Worth watching. Robert Friedland, considered the most successful mining promoter in 50 years, warns that we need the same amount of copper mined since time began all over again to maintain current consumption - excluding any additional green energy demand. A worrying forecast indicating shortages (and worse?) from someone who has successfully brought multiple massive, high risk deposits to market.

Uranium:

The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust bought 500,000 lb. of U3O8, lifting its first-quarter purchases to 1.25 million lb. and total holdings to about 76 million lb. worth over $7 billion, which has helped to lift uranium spot prices 11% this year to around $91/lb. The rally coincides with growing nuclear momentum, including big tech power deals, supportive New York state policies, and US government funding to expand domestic uranium enrichment.

Analysts at Teniz Capital say the uranium market is reaching a tipping point, with strong demand from nuclear power and data centers colliding with slow mine development and supply deficits. Because new uranium projects can take 10–15 years to develop, they see a long-term structural bull market where prices could rise three- to four-fold.

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🇬🇱 🇮🇸 🇪🇺Greenland, Iceland, and North Atlantic

Greenland remains front and center, even though US President Trump has backed away from a threat to annex the island, instead stating at the World Economic Forum that a “framework” of a deal had been agreed with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Details of this deal have yet to be released.

• Greenland’s Prime Minister warned that the US still seeks political control of Greenland, even though it has backed away from prior threats to use force.

• “No one owns our Arctic land.” Greenland Inuit complain that Inuit self-governance is being sidelined and emphasize stewardship and shared land-use traditions that clash with outside “purchase/ownership” constructs.

• The US Naval Academy argues that Trump’s warnings of Russian and Chinese activity around Greenland are overstated.

• Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev called Western warnings of Sino-Russian interest in Greenland “horror stories” and said they’re being used to justify geopolitical maneuvering.

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🇨🇦 Canadian Arctic

• Canada will open its new consulate in Nuuk, Greenland this week. Foreign Minister Anita Anand, Governor-General Mary Simon, and Arctic ambassador Virgnia Mearns will attend along with the CCG’s Jean Goodwill icebreaker. Expect Inuit-focused statements on shared heritage and united Canada-Denmark-EU opposition to the Trump administration.

• The Nunavut and NWT premiers told a Senate committee that real Arctic security requires major spending on basic infrastructure, such as roads and power; security means more than military in the Arctic, they said.

• Canada’s Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) warned that both Russia and China have a “significant intelligence interest” in the Canadian Arctic. Inuit leader Natan Obed agrees, saying that coordination with indigenous groups is essential to close off an obvious opportunity for the exertion of foreign influence.

• Alaska demands a say on Canadian resource projects. A group of Alaskan tribal nations have gone to the BC Supreme Court to demand a say on resource developments on traditional territory inside Canadian borders.

• Canadian Arctic shipping companies are demanding more and better data on sea ice conditions as well as better ice-breaking support, citing increasingly difficult Arctic ice conditions and high winds.

• Canada and Sweden launched a strategic partnership to deepen cooperation on defense, Arctic policy, trade, and innovation.

🇺🇸 Alaska and the US Arctic

• A large drilling rig tipped over while moving on an ice road on the North Slope, with a fire contained and no serious injuries reported despite spill-response complications from weather. Here is the official incident situation report on the North Slope rig move.

• Democrat Mary Peltola could give Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK-R) a run for her money in the upcoming mid-terms.

• Alaska approves tougher rules for hunting, fishing licenses.

• Bollinger is relying on retired US Coast Guard to lead its Arctic Security Cutter build.

🇳🇴 Norway, the Barents, and Nordic High North

• Norway is introducing military police on Svalbard to address rising tension between different nationalities on the island.

• Norway approves a major long-range artillery purchase near its Arctic border as part of the Europe-wide defense ramp-up and procurement push.

• The Arctic Frontiers conference starts today in Tromsø, Norway. Organizers say the conference aims for a broad agenda that includes defense and security, as well local and community priorities.

• Cold Response 26: preparation is underway for the annual Norway-led winter exercise in the High North.

🇷🇺 Russian Arctic

• The United States and Europe are falling far behind Russia and China in the Arctic.

• Both Russia and China are now streets ahead of NATO in Arctic drone design and manufacture.

• Russia deploys ALL EIGHT NUCLEAR icebreakers in the Arctic at one time, for the first time.

• Russia successfully tests airborne re-fuelling in Arctic darkness near the North Pole.

• Russia and India have formalized a five-year Arctic partnership granting India military access to Russia’s Arctic naval ports, polar training, and logistics support.

• Russia locates lost Soviet-era nuclear graveyard in the Arctic.

🧊 Pan-Arctic — Climate & Wildlife

• Svalbard polar bears remain in good physical condition despite sea-ice decline.

• Data-rich map showing the collapse of the Bathurst caribou migration route.

• A narwhal carcass washes up off the coast of County Donegal in Ireland. The unicorns of the north are highly sensitive to habitat disruption particularly noise, for example from Arctic cruise ships.

• Permafrost thaw is creating new food-safety risks for Inuit delicacies such as fermented walrus, forcing changes in traditional harvesting and storage practices.

• Collar cams give a rare bears’-eye view of the Arctic.

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Arctic General News:

Nuclear Tension Rattles the Arctic

US President Trump and Russian Federation President Putin both say they are considering testing nuclear weapons in a series of tit-for-tat escalations that lifted nuclear tension to its highest since the end of the Cold War. Read more here.

Russia Triggers Nuclear Tension

Russia has a pattern of threatening nuclear retaliation whenever its conventional military is weak, and Ukraine is draining Moscow economically and militarily. De-escalation requires a better understanding of the Russian perspective. Read more here.

Germany, or South Korea? Canada’s Decision is about more than Submarines

For the first time, Canada is about to build an underwater offshore naval presence on all its three coasts, but finding one sub that can meet the distinct requirements of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic oceans is a challenge. Strong compatibility with unmanned underwater vehicles (underwater drones) will be vital. Read more here.

Russian to offer state-backed maritime insurance on the NSR

Russia plans to insure all commodity cargoes travelling the Northern Sea Route, in a bid to boost volumes and the Arctic sea lane’s viability. Western providers have effectively ceded yet another long-term slice of the global shipping industry to the BRICS. Read more here.

The Western sanction regime continues to crumble

Suppliers to Russia’s Arctic LNG2 continue to thumb their noses at Western sanctions. The Utrenniy terminal has completed 19 loadings worth $50 million each so far this year and Wison’s Zhoushan Yard, Red Box and Japan’s MOL are among many companies continuing to work with the facility. China’s Jutal Offshore Oil Service is the latest supplier demanding a sanctions exclusion. Read more here.

The United States must harmonize its Arctic command structures

The Atlantic Council said the US shift towards hemispheric defense requires Arctic US command harmonization, now that the Trump administration is prioritizing defense of the US homeland over global engagement. Read more here.

Canada’s new budget pivots an economy under duress

Canada’s new budget axes operational spending in favour of up to C$1 trillion in new spending on infrastructure and defense. Prime Minister Mark Carney hopes this shot in the arm will grow the economy fast enough to shove Canada off an escalating debt spiral and onto a declining deficit-to-gdp glidepath. These plans confront strong headwinds from the US tariff regime, however, with Canadian unemployment soaring above seven percent and annual growth struggling to reach one percent this year, with the deficit projected at a record C$78 billion. Read more here.

Arctic News:

• New York Times speaks to the Inuit who helped Parks Canada find the Franklin Expedition ships.

• Russia is raising abandoned nuclear submarines from the seabed.

• A Norwegian tall ship tries but fails to sail the Northwest Passage.

• Canada has its first Inuit-owned defence company.

• Sweden is moving an entire Arctic city in order to access the huge hoard of critical minerals from the ground underneath.

• Canadian Rangers plant a flag - metaphorically - way up North.

• China’s “Instanbul Bridge” is a long-term play for an Arctic foothold – at Russia’s expense: Jamestown Foundation.

• Geothermal is the key for Canadian Arctic communities seeking an affordable and independent power supply.

Arctic Resources Round-Up:

The US government is investing hundreds of millions of dollars in rare earth magnet producer Vulcan Elements to build a 10,000-tonnes-per year plant. The US Commerce Department is taking a $50 million equity stake, and the Pentagon is loaning $620-million with private investors chipping in another $550 million. The Pentagon is also loaning $80 million to magnet recyling and e-waste company American Resources (AREC:Nasdaq) unit ReElement, to be matched by private capital. No word on whether the Pentagon is seeking an offtake agreement, as it did with MP Materials.

The US government announced an historic partnership with Westinghouse Electric, Cameco, and Brookfield Asset Management to spend at least $80 billion on a collection of new nuclear reactors. Shares in Cameco (CCO:TSX) soared, closing up 1.54% at $129.43 in Toronto on Friday.

Canada’s federal government is investing in 26 early stage critical minerals projects worth a potential C$6.4 billion in order to build a national defense stockpile that will include graphite, rare earths, and scandium. Plans include offtake agreements and joint investments with a number of other G7 and Western nations.

Teck Resources (TECK.A.B:TSX) said Q3 zinc concentrate production at its Red Dog mine in Alaska exceeded expectations reaching 272,800 tonnes thanks to good weather and operational efficiencies. One of the world’s largest zinc mines, Red Dog relies on a narrow July-October shipping window and directly influences the zinc price. Teck.A shares closed down 1.62% at 57.75 in Toronto.

Russia is working to resuscitate its Pavlovskoye lead-zinc deposit in the Arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya with China replacing Finland as lead investor after Helsinki pulled out because of Ukraine. Rosatom expects to mill an annual 3.5 million tons of ore over 20 years with a commissioning target date of December 31, 2031.

Sweden is lifting its uranium ban as of January 1 next year. The country hosts an estimated 27 percent of Europe’s known uranium resource. A municipal veto for handling small quantities of uranium locally was also narrowed.

Canada’s Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM:TSX) continues to diversify into critical minerals with a new $130 million subsidiary, Avenir Minerals Ltd., controlling $80 million in early stage deposits. Agnico recently invested $180 million in Perpetua Resources (PPTA:TSX) and its US-government supported Stibnite gold and antimony project. Agnico shares closed up 0.65% at $226.52, Perpetua shares closed up 6.22% at 31.26 on Friday in Toronto.

Analysts remain bullish on gold despite a recent correction, due to safe haven demand, a declining US dollar, and weak real interest rates. Many are forecasting a minimum price of US$5000 per ounce in 2026, including Metals Focus, which compiles price forecasts from major investment bank estimates, as well as the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Metals Focus expects silver to break above US$60 oz next year, with 20-percent+ price increases in platinum and palladium.

China is driving the gold price higher, according to Apollo Global Management. Central bank buying, arbitrage trading, and increased safe haven demand in China are critical drivers of a rapid increase in demand for the yellow metal.

Canada’s Equinox Gold (EQX:TSX) became the latest Canadian gold miner to report record third quarter production. The company produced 236,382 oz gold at an AISC of $1833 with year-to-date production reaching 634,327 oz towards an end-year target of 915,000 oz. Q3 net income was $85 million on $819 million EBITDA. Equinox shares closed up up 1.86% at C$16.40 on Friday in Toronto.

Canada’s Iamgold (IMG:TSX) also hit record Q3 production at 190,000 oz towards a full-year target of up to 820,000 oz. Year-to-date revenue is $1.76 billion at an AISC of $1956 per ounce with a third-quarter average realized gold price of $3492 per oz. Trailing EBITDA now exceeds $1 billion, the company said. Iamgold shares closed up 4.83% at C$17.80 on Friday in Toronto.

Rackla Metals (RAK:TSX) CEO Simon Ridgway tells the Northern Miner that a 10-hole drilling program at its Grad discovery in the Northwest Territories extends the broader Tombstone Gold Belt where more than 17 million ounces gold have already been discovered. Rakla shares closed up 3.57% at C$0.87 on Friday in Toronto.

Freegold Ventures (FVL:TSX) reported more high-grade drill results at its Golden Summit property 30 km northeast of Fairbanks, Alaska, with a prefeasibility study expected next year. Golden Summit is one of North America’s largest undeveloped gold resources with 432 million tonnes at 1.24 grams/Au for 17.2 million oz indicated gold with another 11.9 million oz inferred as of July last year. Freegold Ventures shares closed up 3.51% at $1.18 on Friday in Toronto.

Coeur Mining (CDE:NYSE) is buying Canada’s New Gold (NGD:TSX) for US$7 billion in an all-stock deal that will create a $20 billion company producing 900,000 oz gold and 20 million oz silver in 2026. Shares of both companies have tripled over the past year. Coeur Mining shares closed up 1.73% at $14.69 in New York, New Gold shares closed up 1% at 9.85 on Friday in Toronto.

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Arctic General News:

1. Denmark boosts Arctic defence by $4.26 billion, buys F-35 fighter jets

   Copenhagen said it is purchasing an additional 16 F-35s adding to its original order for 27 aircraft, in a continuing effort to fend off US criticism that its defence of Greenland is inadequate.

   “These are investments that are necessary in difficult times, when, unfortunately, war has once again broken out on European soil,” Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said on Friday as he announced the contract.

2. The United States orders ELEVEN medium icebreakers, four from Finland

   

   These “Arctic Security Cutters” or ASCs are medium-heavy ice breaking patrol ships similar to the fleet of six medium ice-breaking patrol ships Canada relies on throughout the summer months.

   They can break up to four feet of ice, have a range of 12,000 miles, and can travel for 60 days without resupply. The first ship has a delivery date of 2028.

   These ships are not equivalent to the polar icebreakers that China has built, let alone the fleet of eight nuclear polar icebreakers that Russia uses on its Northern Sea Route. The US has one polar icebreaker, and two under construction.

   Four of the ASCs will be built in Finland, the remaining seven will be built at two separate shipyards in the United States, with Finnish assistance and expertise.

   Total estimated contract value is $6.1 billion. Four ship building companies are involved: Bollinger Shipyards, Rauma Marine Construction, Seaspan Shipyards, and Aker Arctic Technology Inc.

3. MV Thamesborg successfully re-floated, on her way out of the NWP

   

   MV Thamesborg, the cargo ship that grounded in the Franklin Strait in the Northwest Passage in early September, has finally been re-floated and is now on her way. “At approximately 6 a.m. local time, on Thursday, October 9, the grounded cargo vessel MV Thamesborg was successfully refloated in the Franklin Strait, Nunavut,” the Canadian Coast Guard announced on its live operations page. “The vessel is currently stable, and there is no pollution or injuries as a result of the floating. The CCGS Des Groselliers remains on scene, actively monitoring operations.” Vessel finder shows Thamesborg north of the shoal where it grounded, in a large bay, accompanied by four other vessels, with the Canadian Coast Guard cutter some distance away. Bellot Strait is a short distance to the north. The Coast Guard said removing the cargo of carbon anodes reduced the ship’s draft, along with the amount of water in the vessel’s damaged ballast tanks. The ship will undergo an inspection at a nearby sheltered harbour before proceeding. This is the final update according to the Canadian Coast Guard, indicating some confidence that the problem has been resolved. Thamesborg ran aground on September 6 after sailing through the Franklin Strait, a route that Dutch ship owner Wagenborg has travelled dozens of times since becoming the first cargo operator to transit the Northwest Passage in 2016. The Canadian Coast Guard said it would like to acknowledge the cooperation of Wagenborg and their salvage company.

4. World’s largest container ship company rules out the Northern Sea Route

   

   Europe’s Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) joined the growing list of international shipping companies avoiding the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast. “The Northern Sea Route remains underdeveloped for commercial shipping since safe navigation and transit are not assured,” MSC said in a statement noting the effect increased traffic is having on the Arctic’s fragile ecosystem. MSC joins Maersk, Hapag Lloyd, and Kuehne+Nagel in the decision, all of them citing environmental risks. Four of the top five global shipping companies accounting for more than half of all global container ocean freight are now giving the NSR the cold shoulder, forcing an even greater Russian reliance on Chinese operators. MSC announced its decision the same week that China’s Sea Legend launches the first liner-type service between China and Europe. The 18-day trip “Arctic Express” service starts in Qingdao, with stops in Shanghai and Ningbo before reaching the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland. Traveling via the Suez Canal would take 40 to 50 days.

5. A very different tune on Russian cooperation from the Arctic Council.

   

   Arctic Council members publicly acknowledged Moscow’s vital contribution to Arctic governance at an Arctic security conference in Norway this week. “If one takes Russia out of the equation, one does not just lose precision in estimates regarding climate change, but there will also be bias,” Rolf Rodven of the Council’s Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme told delegates. The comments coincide with rising concern about non-ice class sanctioned oil tankers traversing the Northern Sea Route, where they are running into major ice drifts. “People should know that we have successful exercises and that all Arctic states are very engaged in ensuring the ability to respond in case of accidents and oil spills,” Benjamin Strong, chair of the Council’s Emergency Prevention, Preparedness, and Response working group told the conference, adding that they meet with the Russians once or twice a year. The NATO Arctic nations kicked Russia out in 2022 in response the Ukraine invasion, terminally compromising the Council’s own viability and ending decades of successful multi-lateral governance of a deeply complex region. Although the Arctic Council holds no authority on security issues, it enjoyed significant influence in Arctic affairs offering uniquely valuable coordination between the Arctic Eight and all Arctic indigenous groups. The decision escalated global tension and accelerated Sino-Russian cohesion, and the Council itself remained on hiatus until 2023 when Norway took over Russia’s chairmanship, and restarted the Council’s working groups. But these efforts have struggled to remain relevant given that Russia controls more than half the Arctic coastline, and is the most populated and capable Arctic state. It has become increasingly clear that the Council would now like to Russia to rejoin. “It is not just okay but necessary to let researchers and practitioners operate a pragmatic cooperation,” said Jennifer Spence, Director of the Arctic Institute at Harvard’s Belfer Centre. Russia has historically promoted the Arctic Council as the preeminent forum for Arctic governance and cooperation, but it suspended funding after it got kicked out and said it considers any decisions made in its absence to be illegitimate.

4. Virginia Mearns takes up position as Canada’s new Arctic ambassador.

   

   Mearns is preparing to address the 2025 Arctic Circle in Reykykavik, Iceland on October 16-18. She plans to “demonstrate and assert” Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic before 2000 delegates from 60 countries, including the United States. “It’s important to note the longstanding relationship that Canada and the [United] States have had with respect to the Arctic, whether it be from a security standpoint or from the perspectives of the residents of our respective countries,” Mearns told the Nunatsiaq News. “There are many ways in which we can ensure that that relationship remains positive.” Mearns was appointed as part of Global Affairs Canada’s new Arctic Foreign Policy, which committed C$38 million towards enhanced intra-Arctic cooperation, funding both the new ambassadorship as well as two new consulates in Anchorage, Alaska and Nuuk, Greenland. Mearns is an Inuit who has held a series of high level positions in the Government of Nunavut.

5. Chunk takes the crown.

A massive brown bruin with a broken jaw won the hearts and minds of most of those who tuned in to watch the 10th annual feeding frenzy at Katmai National Park. It’s a remarkable comeback for Chunk, weighing in at an estimated 1200 pounds. Last year, he attacked a cub that stumbled, then fell down a waterfall into Chunk’s fishing spot; the cub later died of his injuries. More than 1.5 million people voted in a wildly popular contest that is attracting a growing global audience to the Park Rangers’ live streams each year.

Arctic Resources News:

1. Critical Metals signs second offtake agreement for Tanbreeze

   

   Critical Metals (CRML:NSDQ) has signed a second offtake agreement for its huge Tanbreeze rare earths project in Greenland, taking the project one step closer to viability. The new 10-year offtake agreement is for 15 percent of production to go to REalloys of Ohio, and it follows hard on the heels of a similar 10-year offtake agreement in August contracting 10 percent of production to Ucore Rare Metals (UCU:TSXV). “REalloys and Critical Metals share a common commitment to reducing China’s dominance in the global rare earth supply chain,” CEO Lipi Mainheim said in a news release. Tanbreeze is one of the world’s largest heavy and medium rare earth deposits adjacent to year-round deep-water access to the North Atlantic. Last week, Critical Metals lifted its ownership stake in Tanbreeze to 92.5% from 42% in a deal valued at $116 million, and said a feasibility study will be submitted in the fourth quarter. The shares surged earlier this week when Reuters erroneously reported that the US government was considering taking a stake in the company, later denied. Shares closed at $11.79 on Wednesday after hitting a high of $16.68 earlier in the week on the Reuters report.

2. USA Rare Earths joins the roster of critical minerals companies attracting US federal interest.

   Shares leapt 20 percent last week on comments by CEO Barbara Humpton that talks are underway. USA Rare Earth’s primary prospect in Texas contains 15 of 17 rare earth elements, and it is building a processing facility in Oklahoma. Last week, USA Rare Earth said it was buying the UK’s Less Common Metals, which produces both metals and alloys at a plant in Cheshire. The US government has just taken a five percent stake in Lithium Americas along with another five percent in its Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors. This follows a major investment in MP Minerals earlier this year. USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR:NSDQ) hit a high of $30.92 before closing at $27.02 on Wednesday.

3. Trump orders green light for Ambler Road in Alaska, takes 10% in Trilogy Metals

   

   US President Trump has ordered US government agencies to reissue permits for the 340-km Ambler Industrial road project in northwest Alaska, in order to access copper, cobalt, gallium, and germanium deposits on one of the largest undeveloped copper-zinc belts in the world. The move will anger environmental and first nation groups deeply concerned that the road will bisect the annual migratory path for the Western Arctic caribou herd, but the Trump administration said the road is “is in the public interest and will unlock Alaska’s mineral potential by securing domestic supplies of critical minerals.” The US government is also taking a ten-percent stake worth $35.6 million in Vancouver-based Trilogy Metals, which controls the Arctic copper-zinc project in the Ambler Road area, with probable reserves of 46.7 million tonnes grading 2.11% copper, 2.9% zinc, 0.56% lead, 0.42 gpt gold, and 31.8 gpt silver. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum expects construction of the roadto begin as soon as the second quarter next year. Trilogy closed at $8.80 in Toronto on Wednesday after hitting a high of $11.02 on the news on Tuesday. The stock closed at $2.97 on Monday for a market of $1.45 billion.

4. B2Gold achieves commercial production at its Goose mine in Nunavut.

   

   Full production throughput of 4000 tonnes per day is expected in the fourth quarter, producing up to 110,000 oz for the year, ramping up to 300,000 oz in 2027. Goose is Canada’s second producing gold mine in Nunavut, after Agnico-Eagle’s Meliadine. Shares closed at (BTO:TSX) $7.48 in Toronto on Wednesday.

6. Mark Bristow’s departure as president and CEO of Barrick Mining (ABX:TSX) could spur asset sales, mining analysts told The Northern Miner last week. They said the stock has consistently under-performed despite record gold prices, indicating market sensitivity to its geo-political risk profile. On Monday Barrick announced the sale of its Tongon mine in Cote d’Ivoire for $305 million. The company has also just announced a major success at its Fourmile project in Nevada, which is expected to produce up to 750,000 oz per year, anchoring US domestic production which could then support a shift away from mines in developing areas such as Pakistan and Africa. Some analysts are speculating about a potential merger with the world’s largest gold miner Newmont. With gold soaring above US4,000 per ounce, the majors are increasingly emphasizing that their greatest interest is now in stable production from Tier One jurisdictions.

7. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has purchased another 400,000 pounds of uranium bringing its stockpile to a total of 72.4 million pounds. This follows a third quarter purchase of 2.3 million pounds, lifting the trust to a net asset value of $6 billion.

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Arctic General News

1. Danish Prime Minister issues emotional apology to Greenlandic Inuit women.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen issued an emotional apology to the indigenous women of Greenland for imposing compulsory contraceptive coils on thousands of Inuit in the 1960s and 1970s. “Today there is only one right thing to say to you. Sorry,” Frederiksen said last week in the Greenland capital, Nuuk. Children as young as 12 were fitted with contraceptive coils without their knowledge or consent. No estimate made of Inuit population loss as a result, but cases of effective sterilisation have been confirmed, and 143 women are seeking legal redress. “Where are the children and grandchildren I should have?” asked one woman. Inuit children were also removed from their parents, a practice that continues to this day. This week, public outrage forced Danish authorities to reverse a decision to separate a newborn from her young Greenlandic mother. Greenland was a Danish colony until 1953.

2. Canada, the US, Greenland must de-escalate, present a united front to Russia.

A respected Canadian academic with strong Arctic expertise is calling for Canada, Greenland, and United States to set aside their differences to counter Russian propaganda. “With a comprehensive plan for the future of North America’s Arctic, there will be less room for Russian falsehoods and distorted realities,” writes Alexander Dalziel, senior fellow at Canada’s Macdonald Laurier Institute. His review of Russian media reveals a narrative attempt to depict Canada, Greenland, the United States, and Denmark as conspiring to militarize the Arctic and thwart Russia’s ambitions - a dangerous narrative feeding Russian paranoia duing the armed conflict in Ukraine. “Russian media mostly sees Canada, Denmark, and Greenland as either passive spaces in which the US can largely do what it wants, or as in league with US goals and intentions, which centre on containing Russia and denying it the natural resources and shipping lanes of the Arctic,” Dalziel explains. Understanding the Kremlin’s narratives is critical, he said. While Canada and her allies have no control over how Russian media distorts reality, they can still respond by presenting a clear and inclusive vision of the region that includes Indigenous voices and respects Greenland’s self-determination, he said. Read more here.

3. Canada’s CBC urges closer ties between Canada and Greenland

The story focuses exclusively on the American “threat” rather than shared Inuit culture. Greenland is separated from the Canadian territory of Nunavut by, at most, 26 kilometers, and Inuit form the vast majority of both states, sharing cultural and historical traditions focused on nomadic survival in one of the world’s harshest environments. Canada and Denmark enjoy close and friendly relations, despite a decades-long dispute over tiny Hans Island off Ellesmere Island. Hostilities were marked by military travelling to the island every six months to pull down the other nation’s flag and replace it with their own, leaving behind a a bottle of schnapps (Denmark) or a bottle of whisky (Canada). In 2022, the 1973 ‘Whiskey War’ ended with an agreement to split the tiny 1.3km island down the middle.

4. Newer, faster, cleaner, better icebreakers!

Responding to increased demand, Finland’s Aker Arctic unveils its next generation Medium-class Icebreaker. The ship is intended to ensure year-round access to Baltic Sea ports, and promises lower emissions and greater icebreaking power compared to existing medium-class models.

5. Whitehorse to host an Arctic Security Summit in February 2026

Yukon’s new Canadian Institute for Arctic Security (CIAS) and the Whitehorse Chamber of Commerce will hold an Arctic Summit 2026 on February 23 to 25 in Whitehorse. The event will bring together leaders, investors and policymakers from Alaska, Greenland, and from across Canada’s North to pursue strategic collaboration and investment solutions. The meeting will be closed to the public except for one free day at an Arctic Expo at the Kwanlin Dun Cultural Centre. “The summit will forge pan-Arctic collaboration, reinforce sovereignty and security, and channel investment into infrastructure, critical sectors, and communities that reflect northern priorities.” The Yukon government has committed $50,000 and key themes are sovereignty, security and defence; indigenous governance; trade, infrastructure, and economic security; critical minerals, energy, and strategic resources; technology, and communications.

• Little of the West’s experience from theatres in the war on terror is applicable in the Arctic, especially when that world turns warm. The Wall Street Journal investigates a Swedish program to train NATO military in Arctic warfare. “We don’t have the same lived experience that most Swedes have,” said a member of the UK’s Ranger Regiment. “It’s a slow learning curve.”

• Americans are flooding into Greenland - and struggling to find hotel rooms and reliable air transport once they arrive. Some have ended up sleeping on the floor in the airport due to cancelled flights. (A typical Arctic trip, then…….)

• It’s been a poor shrimp harvest in Arctic waters this year.

• Sea ice changes account for more than half of all winter Arctic near-surface temperature changes 1959-2015, according to new research printed in Nature.

Arctic Natural Resources Update

1. Ekati mine owners seek federal assistance.

   

   Burgundy Diamond Mines (BDM:ASX) is seeking C$150 million in federal funding from the Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation “to ensure the financial viability of its operations at the Ekati mine amid challenging market conditions.” The company laid off hundreds of workers last July, saying the Point Lake surface pit had become “sub-economic,” but it pledged to continue operating the Misery underground mine while it came up with production plan to secure a mine life into the 2030s. Ekati is one of three diamond mines near Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories, accounting for 13 percent of global diamond supply, and 20 percent of the Northwest Territories’ C$1.2 billion gross domestic product. Ekati is known globally for producing high quality yellow stones, a market segment that has been especially hard hit by recent market turmoil with 50-percent price declines in three years. Consumers are choosing cheaper lab-grown alternatives, and Chinese demand has declined sharply. This has exposed structural inefficiencies within the diamond supply chain, with buyers required to purchase parcels containing wide varieties in sizes, colours, and clarities, leading to high inventories and thin margins. This traditional and often secretive market has been slow to respond, and so far there are no signs of recovery. Ekati became Canada’s first diamond mine, producing more than 100 million carats since start-up in 1998. It employs more than 1200 including at least 200 northern indigenous. The territorial government has already offered property and carbon tax relief to its diamond sector with the two other diamond mines confronting similar challenges. The Diavik ran at a loss in 2024 and is due to close next year; Gahcho Kue may scale back prior to a planned 2030 closure. Burgundy reported a 2024 loss of $97.25 million on revenue of $447 million against a year-earlier loss of $27 million. Throughput declined 44-percent on the year, but the mine still produced 4.6 million carats, only ten percent less than last year, and it ended the year with $25 million cash on hand. Trading was halted on Friday in Australia at less than A$0.02 per share.

2. Yet more sanctions blowback on the West: Arctic LNG2 reaches record output

   

   Arctic LNG2 bumped up gas production to record levels last month, thanks to Chinese buyers. Bloomberg reports average daily production of 17.9 million m³ in September, up 14 percent on the month and the highest daily average since the facility was launched in December 2023. Seven tankers have stopped at the facility since late August, Bloomberg reported, all of them headed to China. This confirms that sanctions continue to backfire, tightening Sino-Russian economic ties as the two great powers conspire to defeat NATO’s attempts to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg expects production to slow and perhaps even halt entirely in the next couple of months due to a lack of ice-class ships required to transport the LNG along the Northern Sea Route. The facility had been on hiatus for 18 months prior to August, since 60-percent owner Novatek launched the project. Japan’s Mitsui and JOBMEC are junior partners.

3. High grade zinc drill core pulled at Fireweed Metals’ MacPass project in Yukon.

   

   Shares of Fireweed Metals (FWZ:TSX) soared to record highs on a high-grade zinc drill core pulled from the MacPass project in eastern Yukon. The hole showed 33 percent zinc in one section, with shorter sections yielding 40- and 50-percent zinc. Gallium and germanium are also present. Two drill rigs remain on site at the Tom South zone, which remains open. “The impressive width and grade of the intersection at Tom South demonstrates that the zone thickens and remains open down-dip, positioning this hole amongst the most significant in the project’s history,” said Fireweed President and CEO Ian Gibbs. “(This) underscores the massive exploration potential across the district.” Macpass is the second major exploration project at the property on the Northwest Territories border; the first is Mactung, the world’s largest and richest tungsten deposit, now being explored as a counter to China’s 80-percent control of the global tungsten market. The season’s 11,300-meter drill program at Mactung has now ended with results to be incorporated into a US$15.8-million feasibility study funded by the US Pentagon. Canada is chipping in another C$12.9 million to upgrade the 250km road from Ross River to the mine site, and to extend a new 138kV transmission line from Faro to Macmillan Pass via the tiny hamlet of Ross River. These developments follow the appointment of Ian Gibbs and Adam Lundin as CEO and Chair respectively. Both arrived from Lundin Mining Group where they helped to develop the Vicuna copper district on the Argentina/Chile border, a 50-50 partnership with copper giant BHP (BHP:ASX). “Fireweed is now well-prepared to capitalize on the opportunities ahead and solidify its position as a leader in the critical minerals space,” the company says on its website. Shares closed at $3.12 in Toronto for a market cap of C$653 million. Rogue, Cynthia, King Tut, Peak, and Einarson are nearby prospects.

4. US Government takes stake in Vancouver-based Lithium Americas

   

   The US Department of Energy is buying minority stakes in Lithium Americas (LAC:TSX) and its Thacker Pass project in Nevada in the latest move by the United States to secure an independent critical minerals supply. Vancouver-based Lithium Americas won a $2.26 billion loan from the Biden administration to build processing facilities at Thacker Pass, but Chinese overproduction crashed prices, raising doubts about the company’s ability to service the loan. The Trump administration has now agreed to release $435 million and defer $182 million in debt service in return for a direct five-percent stake in the company, along with a five-percent stake in its Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors, which paid $625 million for 38-percent position in the project last year. GM is now amending terms to facilitate the US government investment. China controls more than three-quarters of the world’s lithium, processing it into battery-grade material. Lithium shares were trading at C$9.93 in Toronto on Wednesday, up from C$4.23 last week.

5. Two significant leadership changes in the gold majors

   Mark Bristow suddenly quit as Barrick Mining (ABX:NYSE) president and CEO, and Natascha Viljoen has been appointed CEO of Newmont, the world’s biggest gold miner. Raised in South Africa, Viljoen joined Newmont (NEM:NYSE) as chief operating officer in 2023, and was recently appointed president. Bristow’s departure was unexpected; he planned to stay in post until Reko Diq, the company’s massive copper-gold project in Pakistan, came into production in 2028. Analysts called it an “abrupt transition” and referenced the Mali government’s seizure of Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine. In-country executives have been imprisoned, the mine remains closed, and Barrick has taken a $1 billion charge.

6. The State of Alaska loses its bid for a slab of ANWR

   

   The state of Alaska has lost an 11-year legal dispute over control of a section of the western boundary of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, keeping it under federal control. The decision by a US District Court judge in Anchorage denies the state additional revenues from federal oil and gas leasing in a 20,000-acre section of potentially oil-rich land adjacent to the Prudhoe Bay oil field.

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That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading!

It’s Fat Bear Week:

VOTE HERE

Arctic General News:

1. Sanctions continue to upend the global shipping industry, and there is growing concern about Russia’s shadow fleet in the Arctic. Moscow is allowing aging non-ice class rustbucket ships carrying millions of barrels of oil to transit the Northern Sea Route on their way to markets in China, and they’re running into trouble with massive drifting ice sheets.

   See here, here, here, here, here, and here.

2. Faulty, incomplete, or ideologically-tainted data releases on the Arctic minimum sea ice extent are disguising the effects of warming temperatures on the Arctic. There is more ice, not less, and the region has become less, not more accessible. The Arctic maritime environment has also become more hazardous. See here.

3. MV Thamesborg remains grounded in the Northwest Passage, but a salvage team is on site, gCaptain reports. A huge tug, Beverly M I, as well as an ice class cargo vessel Silver Copenhagen are on the scene, transferring Thamesborg’s cargo. The ship was on its way from China to Baie-Comeau, Quebec when it hit a shoal in the Franklin Strait. A third salvage ship is also en route, with Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Des Groseilliers nearby. Fuel tanks and cargo holds remain intact.

4. Korea is planning a trial container ship passage of the Northern Sea Route next year, anticipating a regular route starting in 2030.

5. China launched its first direct European route along the Northern Sea Route today, cutting the usual 40-day trip around the Cape of Good Hope to 18 days. Sea Legend is due to arrive in Felixstowe in the UK on October 10.

6. Japan and South Korea have both signed offtake agreements for the $44 billion Alaska LNG pipeline. Project developer Glenfarme has lined up preliminary agreements for more than half the project’s offtake capacity, and anticipates a development decision later this year. The Alaska Beacon points out that this still leaves eight million tons of production looking for a buyer.

7. The Arctic Research Consortium of the United States is closing down after nearly four decades. The National Science Foundation cancelled its funding.

8. Nunavut has released an Arctic Sovereignty and Security Strategy emphasizing the need for better housing and health care, investments in local energy and resource developments, and job creation.

9. Natan Obed was re-elected September 18 for another four years as president of Canada’s national Inuit organisation, the Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami. This is the fourth term for the popular Obed.

Arctic Mining News:

There has been an M&A surge in the gold mining sector in response to rocketing gold and gold stock prices:

• Equinox Gold (TSX:EQX) - led by Ross Beaty - merged with Calibre Mining (TSX:CXB) in a C$2.56 billion deal, creating Canada’s second largest gold producer behind Agnico-Eagle Mines (TSX:AEM). Total reserves are now estimated at 24 million oz. at nine mines in Canada, the US, Nicaragua, and Brazil. Equinox was founded in 2017 with a goal to produce one million ounces gold each year; this year, the company expects maximum output of 915,000 oz. at an AISC of $1900. Since its founding, Equinox has built five mines and bought four more, with Valentine in Newfoundland and Labrador pouring first gold ahead of schedule on Sept. 14, and Greenstone in Ontario coming into production in November. Equinox shareholders own 65 percent of the combined entity and Calibre shareholders hold 35 percent. Shares closed the week at $10.79.

• Fuerte Metals (TSX:FMT) purchased Yukon’s Coffee Creek gold project from Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM) for $10 million in cash, $40 million in Fuerte shares, and a 3 percent net smelter return royalty with a buyback value of $100 million. Newmont offloaded the heap leach project as part of its disposal program of non-core assets (see below). Fuerte plans to complete a preliminary economic assessment and feasibility study next year, however, the Yukon government has yet to lift a ban on heap leach mining following the the Eagle mine collapse. Fuerte shares up 130 percent this year to C$1.95 for a market cap of $119 million.

• B2Gold (BTO:TSX) said it expects to seek partners and investors next year. The Goose gold mine in Nunavut came on stream on September 4 following a first pour in late June, and is expected to produce 70,000 oz. gold in the fourth quarter. However, problems with the mine crusher will cut total 2025 production to between 80,000 oz. to 110,000 oz. but output is expected to recover next year to an annual target of 300,000 oz. B2Gold operates two gold mines in Africa and one in the Philippines, and said it will seek partners and major investors once the Goose and the Mali mine are fully operational. B2Gold shares closed the week at $6.86.

Small Canadian gold miners are also raising money.

• Snowline Gold (TSX: SGD) closed a second private placement earlier this month, raising $102 million in a heavily over-subscribed private placement following a $20 million raise in April. B2Gold Corp paid C$10 million to maintain its 9.9 percent stake. Snowline continues to advance the Valley project hosting at least 7.94 million ounces gold, the second largest gold prospect in the Yukon behind Brewery Creek. “We are entering an exciting phase as a company as we advance a globally-relevant gold discovery in a top tier jurisdiction amidst a strong market backdrop,” said Snowline CEO Scott Berdahl. Shares closed at C$10.48 Tuesday, up 105% year to date, for a market cap of C$1.87 billion.

• White Gold wants to raise $20 million in a private placement offering premium and non-premium flow-through units at around $1 each. Agnico-Eagle (AEM:TSX) has confirmed that it will maintain its 19.8 percent ownership stake. The raise comes weeks after White Gold updated its resource estimate to 1.73 million indicated oz gold with 1.27 million inferred oz. This ranks White Gold the third largest gold resource in the Yukon behind Snowline Gold’s Valley project, with Brewery Creek still in first place. Brewery Creek remains subject to the Victoria Gold Corp. receivership, with the Yukon government yet to lift a ban on heap leach mining. Shares hit a record high of C$0.87 this week, closing at C$0.85 on Tuesday for a market cap around $174 million.

Record gold prices lifted the Yukon’s placer gold revenue to an historic high last year, and new records are expected again this year. The Yukon Geological Survey said Yukon placer mine production reached 85,799 crude oz. gold in 2024, up 16 percent on the year, and second only to 2020 when the territory produced 86,508 oz. Last year was one of only four years when more than 80,000 oz. of placer gold has been mined. Record gold prices lifted revenue to C$230 million, the most since 1886. The Klondike River area yielded the greatest output gains, up 28 percent, with technological efficiencies offsetting bad weather and regulatory delays. There were 156 placer mines in operation in 2024, up from 147 in 2023, in a welcome boost to a Mom and Pop industry that has struggled to counter environmental opposition. CBC spoke to placer miners working their claims this year who reported a staking rush, and said they are using bonanza gold prices to buy new equipment.

Major mining companies pledged to remain focused on quality and not quantity, and not get lured by record high gold prices into inadvisable consolidation deals. Speaking at the Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs last week, all the majors said they planned to stick with tier one assets, keep their balance sheets clean, and focus on grade, margins, and jurisdiction. Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV:TSX) CEO Paul Brink said gold is rising on persistent weakness in the US dollar-gold cross, amounting to roughly nine percent each year. Barrick Mining Corp (ABX:TSX), Newmont Corporation (NEM:NYSE), and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM:TSX) all said a smaller set of better mines will provide the next production bump, rather than acquisitions. Newmont said it is focused on margin rather than price, after disposing of a pile of non-core assets that helped to shave $300 per ounce off its AISC. Some of these companies are reporting an AISC around $800 per ounce or less, and investors are piling into these stocks in advance of what’s expected to become record third quarter earnings reports.

That’s it for this week. Thank you for reading.

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The stage is set for a major maritime disaster in the Arctic, experts are warning:

1. The region is inadequately surveyed, forcing Arctic ship captains to rely on inaccurate charts that make accidents inevitable.

2. Russia continues to send increasing quantities of Arctic oil and LNG along the Northern Sea Route to China in sanctioned non-ice class tankers, and this is unlikely to stop until the Ukraine War is settled.

3. Any possibility of international coordination on an Arctic disaster response has become challenging - if not impossible - thanks to a confused and inconsistent regional governance system that inflames rather than defuses regional tensions.

“The challenges of navigating the new Arctic are a test of the international community's ability to prioritize long-term safety and environmental protection over short-term economic and geopolitical gain,” Michelle Levano, a uniformed officer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wrote this week in Workboat.

“The same factors driving increased access – climate change and economic interest – are also creating the conditions for a major maritime disaster.”

In the North American Arctic, the MV Thamesborg remains grounded after ten days in the Franklin Strait in the Northwest Passage. Inclement weather including fog has delayed salvage work on the Thamesborg, the Canadian Coast Guard said this week. Thamesborg was piloted by one of the NWP's most experienced operators, and yet it got stuck on a shoal two nautical miles offshore in a remote channel heavily-used by cruise ships carrying hundreds of passengers.

While Canada has charted nearly 45 percent of its key navigational routes in the Arctic, it admits many if not most are insufficient. Less than five percent of Alaska's maritime waters are charted to modern standards with some depth measurements dating back to Captain Cook's surveys in 1778.

“The reliance on century-old data poses an unacceptable risk, as evidenced by recent groundings,” said Levano. “There is a direct link between outdated nautical charts and maritime accidents in this challenging environment.”

Russia works with better charts on the other side of the Arctic Ocean, but it continues to rely on non-ice class tankers to transport oil along the Northern Sea Route where they are running into major ice issues as warming temperatures create far more unpredictable and hazardous conditions.

Last week, a non ice-class Suezmax oil tanker came to a sudden stop at 72 degrees latitude while carrying around a million barrels of oil from Murmansk.

Malte Humpert of gCaptain said the Oman-flagged 274-metre Lynx waited for days, blocked by a huge ice sheet. “The vessel does not hold a mandatory Arctic shipping permit and Russian authorities did not list it in their daily logs of active traffic on the route, an increasingly common practice to obscure sanction-busting shipping activity,” he writes.

One week earlier, LNG carrier Arctic Metagaz got stuck by ice near Pevek while a third non-ice class ship turned around and headed back to Murmansk. Neither Lynx nor Metagaz had organised icebreaker support as required by NSR administration, which eventually supplied a nuclear icebreaker to break them through.

Russia is expanding these operations, announcing last week that it is now sending oil along the NSR to Brunei.

An incoherent international regulatory framework is escalating these risks, which have been further inflamed by the breakdown in communication between Russia and the NATO Arctic states following the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine.

Arctic nations communicated very effectively through the Arctic Council until Russia got kicked out in February, 2022. Russia controls 53 percent of the Arctic coastline, and is the region's most capable Arctic nation, by far, with significant search and rescue, and salvage capabilities.

The Arctic Council continues to exist, but without Russian cooperation and communication its effectiveness has been severely curtailed.

Individual Russian ship captains are known to maintain contact with NATO Arctic counter-parties, but there is no formal or organized structure enabling coordinated crisis communication.

Legally, the Arctic Ocean is governed by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which was written too long ago to reflect the Arctic's geographical realities.

UNCLOS grants the Arctic Five exclusive water and seabed exploitation rights up to 200 miles, with Canada, Russia, the US, Denmark/Greenland, and Norway allowed to extend their exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to a maximum of 350 miles across the continental shelf.

This has inevitably led to a series of competing claims within a relatively tight geographical area, to the point a major geopolitical dispute is now likely, with Russia's contested claim to the highly-strategic Lemonosov Ridge the most obvious flash point.

Even Canada and the US have found themselves at odds under UNCLOS, with Canada staking a claim to the entire Northwest Passage as internal waters according to an “Arctic exception,” which the United States rejects, insisting that the Northwest Passage is an international strait.

The International Maritime Organization has produced a “Polar Code” governing ship design, construction, and operation, but it relies almost exclusively upon operators to self-audit and comply.

“The Arctic's transition from a frozen frontier to a viable trade route will only be truly safe and sustainable if the international community moves from a reactive posture to a proactive and unified approach to governance, infrastructure, and environmental stewardship,” Levano said.

………………………………………….

Another collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea yesterday highlights the risk China poses to Arctic stability.

It also exposes the critical importance of the Arctic fishery to regional security.

A Chinese coast guard vessel collided with a Philippine fishing ship on Tuesday near the Scarborough Shoal, an area known for its rich fishing grounds and large oil and gas reserves, just like the Arctic.

Beijing formally accused Manila of intruding into Chinese territorial waters, even though the shoal lies 120 nautical miles offshore and well inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

This is the second major incident in the same area in under three weeks.

On August 25, two Chinese coast guard sailors were killed when a Chinese naval vessel collided with a coast guard ship during a high speed chase with a Philippine fishing vessel.

Naval experts warn that after a summer of repeated Chinese incursions into American and Canadian waters, Arctic nations need to wake up to China's track record of high risk, aggressive maritime behaviour. China is demonstrating a serious intent to impose itself on the Arctic despite having no legal, territorial, or maritime claim, and Arctic nations need to prepare for what's to come.

“China's history is the best predictor of its future intentions in the Arctic,” said JoEllen Arons, Chief of Emergency Management for the US Coast Guard in Alaska, in a paper. “China's historical actions demonstrate non-compliance with international law if the law does not align with its nations' own interests.”

She warned that the same sort of EEZ encroachments observed by Alaska and Canada this summer were how China started taking control of the South China Sea.

Beijing routinely encroached on other Asian nations EEZs, then denied ships access to those areas while building out and militarizing a string of artificial islands. These atolls are now used to enforce an illegal occupation of a huge international area.

China routinely harasses US and European navies operating in the South China Sea, and it aggressively attacks fishing vessels from Asian coastal nations with competing claims, such as the Philippines. “China continues to escalate its anti-access/area denial tactics as the nation overreaches international norms, aggressively projects power, and dismantles stability in the local region.”

This year China sent its entire fleet of five ice-breaking ships to the Arctic, where they repeatedly showed disregard for US and Canadian sovereignty – in the process, brutally exposing the North American failure to invest in an adequate Arctic maritime defence.

• On July 5, China sent Xue Long 2 into the Chukchi Sea, followed by Shen Hai Yi Hao and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di on July 16.

• On July 21, research icebreaker Ji Di headed north to join them, with Tan Suo San Hao following a few days later, after having been intercepted inside Philippine waters in early May.

• On July 26, the US Coast Guard said it buzzed Xue Long 2 inside the US EEZ, and that it was monitoring the activities of the other ships.

• On August 5, it buzzed both Ji Di and the Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di, which were again inside the US Arctic, and sent US Coast Guard cutter Waesche to respond.

• Zhong Shan da Xue Ji was back inside Alaskan waters on August 31, followed by Ji Di on September 2. Both vessels were buzzed by the Hercules, and intercepted by USCGC Healy.

It's not clear exactly what the Chinese icebreakers were doing above the Chukchi Plateau but military experts speculate they were seabed mapping, looking for places to hide Chinese submarines capable of using ice cover to evade detection from air, surface, or space. “China's robust ice-breaking fleet and ice-capable military assets suggest China is progressively constructing a powerful force that is capable of advanced Arctic operations,” Arons said.

However, it is the Arctic fishery that poses the more immediate threat.

China consumes one third of total annual fish production, and it operates the world’s largest international fishery because its own EEZ is fished out after years of negligence and mismanagement.

China now routinely encroaches into other nations’ EEZs in order to steal their fish stocks, behaving in ways that are remarkably similar to what Canada and the United States observed this year in the Arctic. It is regularly accused of illegal fishing, as well as invasive and unsafe practices.

China has no legal claim to the Arctic fishery but it has been working for years to gain access to it. Pretty much the entire Arctic Ocean is claimed by the Arctic Five, which leaves China dependent on Russia for permission to fish its areas.

However, Canada, the US, Norway, Greenland/Denmark are all under-resourced and ill-equipped to defend their maritime rights, which China is already routinely breaching.

To the best of our knowledge, no Chinese commercial fishing vessels are operating in the Arctic currently, and the uniquely-rich fishing grounds of the Bering and Barents Seas remain locked in ice and inaccessible for much of the year.

But China is building a pathway to gain access. It has inserted itself into Arctic regional governance, obtaining permanent observer status on the Arctic Council despite having no legitimate claim, in the process becoming on of ten signatories to the Central Arctic Ocean Fishing Agreement (COAFA).

This agreement calls for a moratorium on any commercial fishing until 2036, in order to allow time for a resource assessment and to build an enforcement regime. The moratorium is a mixed blessing however, in that while it clearly prohibits Chinese fishing for the next few years, it also allows China to influence future fishery management rules despite having no legal, territorial, or maritime claim.

China's persistent and coordinated pursuit of Arctic influence should be a source of concern to Arctic states whose rights and interests are at risk, but Finland, Norway, Iceland, as well as Russia have all welcomed Chinese investment, undermining a credible and coordinated response to Chinese interference.

Beijing also invests assiduously in its bilateral relations with Arctic states, led by Russia, but also including the smaller NATO members like Iceland and Greenland/Denmark.

Earlier this year, Denmark relaxed restrictions on Greenlandic fish exports to China, which is expected to radically expand the Greenland fishery. Beijing has also established full diplomatic relations with Iceland, building a huge embassy in a country that sits at the entrance to the Arctic sea-lanes from the North Atlantic.

“In the future, as China and Iceland continue to expand this partnership, China could gain enough access to control, and even deny, other nations' freedom of navigation through Arctic sea lanes,” Arons warned.

Beijing claims that it is a benign Arctic presence, supporting environmental stewardship in the Arctic through its research and financial contributions, all within the bounds of international law. Its actions in areas such as the Philippines undermine these claims.

Arons said the two key priorities for the US defence of Arctic maritime security are now protection of the Arctic fishery and enforcement of fishery violations, and the protection of freedom of navigation in alignment with international law.

Alexandra Zoltai at the Eurasia Centre recently wrote a research paper spelling out the importance of the Arctic region to China: “Arctic regions, together with the oceans, and cyberspace and space are all strategic areas in which China has great ambitions and want to become a rule-making or even a leading player.”

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That’s all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Next week, another minerals update, along with a more comprehensive summary of recent events across the region.